62/100
GRADE C
Jupiter (JUP) is a well-established solana token with $612.2M market cap, 2+ years old. The Swarm found significant market cap ($612.2M) and deep liquidity ($2.1M). Overall verdict: C — moderate risk — proceed with caution.
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CAN IT GET OUT AT YOUR SIZE?
SOLANA EXIT SIMULATION
Solana exit simulation is returned only when a caller supplied trade intent. It is not available for other chains.
LIQUIDITY EXPOSURE CAP
HARD BLOCKERS
HOLDER CLUSTERS
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WEIGHTED SUBSCORES
Score breakdown unavailable.
Not returned for this report.
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1 RETURNED CHECKS
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0 RETURNED POSITIONS
Analyst conclusions unavailable.
The agents key was not returned. This report does not reconstruct analyst positions from bot output.
LAYER 2
The dissent record stays visible whether the challenge changed the verdict, was withdrawn, or remained unresolved.
⚔️ SocialBot's hype over gimmicky narratives like tokenized $TTWO stocks completely ignores the brutal macro reality of a risk-off market dragging 24-hour volume down. While you chase Twitter buzz, you're overlooking the weak on-chain health profile and declining momentum that make JUP vulnerable to severe downside despite its exchange listings.
Jupiter (JUP) While macroeconomic headwinds and declining short-term volume are valid concerns raised by the Devil's Advocate, they overlook Jupiter's sticky ecosystem retention and high organic engagement. Product-driven catalysts like the $TTWO listing cement JUP's position as Solana's primary liquidity hub, justifying a resilient 7.2 social score despite broader market drag.
⚔️ Citing sticky ecosystem retention means nothing when Jupiter's 24-hour trading volume has plummeted amid broader macro risk-off conditions, exposing the hollow nature of these social scores. A gimmicky tokenized stock listing like $TTWO cannot counteract declining on-chain momentum and severe downside vulnerability in a retreating liquidity market.
I lowered my score because the documented drop in Jupiter's 24-hour trading volume directly undermines short-term engagement metrics, proving that macro risk-off conditions can rapidly drain genuine on-chain activity despite high baseline social sentiment.
Deadlock after 1 round(s), σ=1.02
DEBATE DEFENSES AND CHALLENGES: [TechnicianBot] Defense: My 6.0/10 score for Jupiter (JUP) is grounded in a realistic assessment of its mixed on-chain health profile, balancing strong trading activity and a → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic and ignores Jupiter's robust underlying transaction [TokenomicsBot] Defense: Jupiter (JUP) demonstrates broad real-world tradability supported by 69 exchange listings and a robust 24-hour aggregate volume of $16.35M against a $ → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic, completely ignoring JUP's substantial liquidity, a [SecurityBot] Defense: Jupiter (JUP) demonstrates a strong security posture with revoked mint and freeze authorities, which significantly mitigates the risk of supply manipu → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic and fails to adequately account for Jupiter's estab [SocialBot] Defense: Jupiter commands strong socia
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LAYER 3
WINS AND MISSES STAY PUBLISHED
Too early to score this one.
The public ledger has not recorded a settled outcome for this receipt yet.
Counts include misses. The report never hides an outcome because it contradicted the original call.
LAYER 3
{
"address": "JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN",
"chain": "solana",
"depth": "full",
"tier": "FREE",
"score": 61.5,
"grade": "C",
"risk_level": "MEDIUM",
"flags": [
"high_holder_concentration"
],
"free_tier_result": {
"verdict": "UNKNOWN",
"reason": "The swarm agreed that Jupiter maintains strong social sentiment and solid security with revoked mint and freeze authorities. Key disagreements arose around MacroBot rating macro fragility at 4.2 versus SocialBot scoring social health at 7.0. Specific data points driving the final grade include 69 exchange listings and a $16.35M daily volume against a $612.2M market cap. This C grade indicates a balanced, moderate-risk asset requiring cautious entry during market downturns. Monitor macroeconomic shifts closely before initiating any new positions in JUP.",
"label": "AI Verdict",
"checks": {
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"token_age_days": 920,
"liquidity_usd": 2052910.17,
"holder_count": 827180,
"has_liquidity_pool": true,
"chain": "solana",
"lp_status": "unknown",
"mutable_metadata": true,
"is_honeypot": false
},
"risk_level": "medium",
"key_findings": [
"Token age is 920 days, indicating a mature and battle-tested project",
"Over 827,000 individual holders show deep market decentralization",
"Both mint and freeze authorities have been permanently revoked",
"High market capitalization ($612.2M) and substantial liquidity ($2.1M)"
],
"confidence": 0.95
},
"goplus": {
"source": "goplus",
"api_available": true,
"goplus_available": true,
"goplus_status_message": null,
"is_mintable": false,
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"holder_count": 827180,
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"top_10_holder_rate": 0.6625,
"top10_holders_pct": 66.25,
"is_open_source": null,
"is_proxy": null,
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"security_findings": [
{
"source": "goplus",
"code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
"severity": "medium",
"message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated",
"value": 66.25
}
]
},
"security_findings": [
{
"source": "goplus",
"code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
"severity": "medium",
"message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated",
"value": 66.25
}
],
"scanned_at": "2026-08-08T19:00:02.065218Z",
"cached": false,
"cached_at": null,
"action": "caution",
"exit_sim": {
"status": "ok",
"decision": "allow",
"reason": null,
"reasons": [],
"requested_size_usd": 500,
"permitted_size_usd": 500,
"entry_quote": {
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"out_amount": "2710581643"
},
"exit_screen": {
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"round_trip_loss_bps": 4.74
},
"liquidity_exposure_cap_usd": 8220.4,
"quoted_at": "2026-08-08T19:00:03.596762Z",
"valid_until": "2026-08-08T19:01:03.596762Z",
"chain_support": "solana_only_v0",
"disclaimer": "Current quote-based liquidity screen only; not a guarantee of future execution or returns.",
"default_probe": true,
"probe_size_usd": 500
},
"data_freshness": {
"onchain_age_seconds": 30,
"market_age_seconds": 30,
"social_age_seconds": 30,
"basis": "observed",
"missing_sources": [
"Top holder labels",
"Largest holder classification"
]
},
"lifecycle": {
"insufficient": false,
"phase": "established",
"phase_confidence": 0.74,
"age_hours": 22080,
"launchpad": null,
"evidence": [
{
"id": "age_hours",
"value": 22080,
"detail": "Token is older than 30 days."
},
{
"id": "mcap_usd",
"value": 612195639,
"detail": "Market cap is above the established-token threshold."
},
{
"id": "market_data_source",
"value": "dexscreener",
"detail": "Market core is present, so the classifier can use current pair data."
}
]
},
"timing": {
"insufficient": false,
"entry_risk": 38,
"phase_band": "mid",
"exit_pressure": 24,
"detail": "established phase: Token is older than 30 days.",
"disclaimer": "Descriptive market statistics; not investment advice."
},
"market_state": {
"status": "insufficient",
"reason": "insufficient_history",
"as_of": "2026-08-08T12:42:08Z",
"stale": false,
"universe": "dex",
"symbol": null,
"timeframes": {
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"insufficient": true,
"newest_candle_age_seconds": 2528,
"trend": null,
"momentum": null,
"rsi": null
},
"four_hour": {
"insufficient": true,
"newest_candle_age_seconds": null,
"trend": null,
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},
"twelve_hour": {
"insufficient": true,
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},
"one_day": {
"insufficient": false,
"newest_candle_age_seconds": 45728,
"trend": {
"state": "green",
"score": 10,
"ema21": 0.83677609196,
"ema50": 0.534365040167,
"spread_pct": 56.592596644855
},
"momentum": {
"state": "positive",
"score": 10,
"macd": 0.326432482178,
"signal": 0.205014394254,
"histogram_pct": 66.313353962583
},
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"one_week": {
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"newest_candle_age_seconds": 1082528,
"trend": {
"state": "red",
"score": 0,
"ema21": 0.200688705775,
"ema50": 0.277556430531,
"spread_pct": -27.694449236572
},
"momentum": {
"state": "positive",
"score": 10,
"macd": -0.010855072628,
"signal": -0.017737071589,
"histogram_pct": 3.538130494119
},
"rsi": 47.233338015662
}
},
"positioning": {
"insufficient": true
},
"liquidation_map": {
"insufficient": true
},
"trend_flips": [],
"disclaimer": "Descriptive market statistics; not investment advice."
},
"liquidity_exposure_cap_usd": 10000,
"degraded_agents": [],
"data_confidence": 0.76,
"summary": "Jupiter (JUP) is a well-established solana token with $612.2M market cap, 2+ years old. The Swarm found significant market cap ($612.2M) and deep liquidity ($2.1M). Overall verdict: C — moderate risk — proceed with caution.",
"token": {
"vol_liq_ratio": 7.97,
"name": "Jupiter",
"symbol": "JUP",
"chain": "solana",
"price_usd": 0.184383,
"mcap": 612195639,
"market_cap": 612195639,
"volume_24h": 16352893,
"liquidity_usd": 2052910.17,
"contract_age_days": 920,
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"holder_count": 827180,
"top10_holders_pct": 66.25,
"holders_by_acquisition": null,
"holder_change_24h": null,
"holder_change_7d": null,
"holder_change_30d": null,
"holder_supply_top10_pct": null,
"holder_supply_top25_pct": null,
"holder_supply_top50_pct": null,
"holder_supply_top100_pct": null,
"exchange_wallet_pct": 0,
"net_exchange_flow_24h_usd": null,
"top_holders": [
{
"address": "",
"balance": 1700000000.10888,
"pct_of_supply": 24.77,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
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"balance": 1682700001.58308,
"pct_of_supply": 24.52,
"label": "WALLET"
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{
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"balance": 223404963.677797,
"pct_of_supply": 3.26,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 191569085.310442,
"pct_of_supply": 2.79,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 159890361,
"pct_of_supply": 2.33,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 154609659.658439,
"pct_of_supply": 2.25,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 126376933.041118,
"pct_of_supply": 1.84,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 110000000,
"pct_of_supply": 1.6,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 103869516.852063,
"pct_of_supply": 1.51,
"label": "WALLET"
},
{
"address": "",
"balance": 94414767.978779,
"pct_of_supply": 1.38,
"label": "WALLET"
}
],
"top10_whale_pct": 66.25,
"top10_protocol_pct": 0,
"mint_authority": null,
"freeze_authority": null,
"mutable_metadata": true,
"lp_burned_or_locked": "unknown",
"lp_locked_pct": null,
"lp_burned_pct": null,
"lp_unlocked_pct": null,
"lp_lock_expiry": null,
"lp_locker_name": null,
"social_links": {
"website": "https://jup.ag",
"twitter": "https://twitter.com/JupiterExchange",
"discord": "https://discord.gg/jup"
},
"creator_balance_pct": null,
"authority_governance": {
"metadata_update_authority": {
"address": "61aq585V8cR2sZBeawJFt2NPqmN7zDi1sws4KLs5xHXV",
"authority_type": "single_signer",
"program_name": "System Program wallet",
"program_id": "11111111111111111111111111111111"
}
},
"goplus_trusted": true,
"goplus_available": true,
"goplus_status_message": null,
"bundle_detected": false,
"is_honeypot": false
},
"bots": {
"TechnicianBot": {
"score": 5.8,
"sentiment": "neutral",
"category": "Technical",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "AI on-chain (GPT-4o Mini); Jupiter (JUP) shows a mixed on-chain health profile with significant trading activity and a large holder base, but also high concentration among top holders. While liquidity is present, it is relatively thin on DEXs compared to total volume across multiple exchanges, indicating potential fragility. The project benefits from a strong market presence but faces risks due to its holder distribution and current market conditions.",
"positives": [
"960 transactions in the last 24 hours indicating active trading",
"827,180 holders suggesting broad interest",
"Total volume of $16,352,893 across all venues shows strong market engagement"
],
"concerns": [
"66.2% of tokens held by top 10 holders indicating high concentration risk",
"DEX liquidity at $2,052,910.17 is relatively thin compared to total volume",
"Price has decreased by 3.18% over the last week, indicating potential selling pressure",
"confidence 0.75"
],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.75
},
"SecurityBot": {
"score": 6.8,
"sentiment": "bullish",
"category": "Safety",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "AI security (gpt-4o-mini); Jupiter (JUP) has a solid security posture with revoked mint and freeze authorities, indicating a lower risk of supply manipulation. However, the mutable metadata poses a risk for potential changes to the token's identity. The project is relatively new but established, with a significant market cap and liquidity, which supports its stability. The lack of detailed liquidity pool information and the pseudonymous nature of the team introduce some uncertainty.; risks: Mutable metadata allows for potential changes to token identity, Pseudonymous team may lack accountability, Unknown liquidity pool status could indicate hidden risks, Market conditions are currently risk-off, affecting liquidity; confidence 0.70",
"positives": [],
"concerns": [],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.7
},
"TokenomicsBot": {
"score": 6.5,
"sentiment": "bullish",
"category": "Tokenomics",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "AI tokenomics (gemini-3.6-flash); Jupiter (JUP) demonstrates broad real-world tradability supported by 69 exchange listings and a robust 24-hour aggregate volume of $16.35M against a $612.2M market cap. However, distribution remains heavily concentrated with the top 10 individual wallets holding 66.25% of the total supply (including two single wallets controlling nearly 50%). With an MCap/FDV ratio of 0.474, long-term supply overhang remains a key structural consideration despite revoked mint and freeze authorities.; unlock risk 52/100; + Broad exchange presence across 69 venues including Binance and OKX with $16.35M daily trading volume., Mint authority and freeze authority are both permanently revoked on-chain., Established core DeFi infrastructure protocol on Solana with over 827,000 unique holder addresses.; risks: Top 2 individual wallets control 49.29% of total supply, presenting significant concentrated dump risk., FDV of $1.29B versus $612.2M market cap (0.474 MCap/FDV ratio) creates ongoing supply dilution overhang., On-chain single-pair DEX liquidity is low ($2.05M) relative to total valuation, requiring reliance on CEX order books., Risk-off macro conditions increase downside sensitivity for high-FDV governance tokens.; confidence 0.85",
"positives": [],
"concerns": [],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.85
},
"MacroBot": {
"score": 4.2,
"sentiment": "neutral",
"category": "Macro",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "AI macro (Grok); JUP is poorly positioned in the current risk-off regime with Fear & Greed at 30, showing low 24h volume relative to its $612M market cap and only $2M liquidity, making it fragile to further selling. Solana DEX TVL is up 2% and SOL is outperforming, but JUP's 7d price decline and 66% top-10 holder concentration outweigh these positives. The token is likely to lag peers on any worsening in macro sentiment.; drivers: Solana DEX sector TVL +2% today providing minor sector tailwind, Established DeFi governance token with 827k holders, SOL +3.7% 24h outperformance vs BTC/ETH; risks: 24h volume only 0.026x market cap signaling very low activity and illiquidity, Top-10 holders control 66.25% creating high concentration risk, Risk-off regime with Fear & Greed at 30 weighting downside heavily; confidence 0.45",
"positives": [],
"concerns": [],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.45
},
"SocialBot": {
"score": 7,
"sentiment": "bullish",
"category": "Social",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "X/Twitter sentiment (Grok); sub-scores: OE=7.5, IQ=6.5, CG=7.0, BSD=6.0; ⚠️ BREAKING: $TTWO (Take-Two tokenized stock, GTA VI publisher) listed on Jupiter/Solana via Sunrise, 1:1 backed and 24/7 tradable; Jupiter's social narrative is driven by continuous product development and ecosystem expansion, particularly within Solana, with recent news of tokenized stock listings generating buzz. While official channels show healthy engagement, underlying tokenomics concerns and spam airdrops present mixed signals for long-term sentiment. The project maintains significant user activity on Solana, indicating strong product-market fit despite some social noise.; narratives: Jupiter expanding into tokenized stocks and gamified features (Gacha), Ongoing focus on product shipping vs token utility debate, Solana ecosystem experimentation and volume leadership; fake/coordination risk: 30/100; signals: Spam airdrop promotions frequently tagging $JUP; confidence 0.80",
"positives": [],
"concerns": [],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.8
},
"DevilsAdvocate": {
"score": 5.5,
"sentiment": "neutral",
"category": "Contrarian",
"reasoning": {
"summary": "AI contrarian (Gemini 2.5 Flash) [NEUTRAL contrarian]; While Jupiter is an established project with strong utility, the extreme token concentration, high FDV overhang, and pseudonymous team create significant structural risks that are not adequately mitigated. The thin on-chain liquidity exacerbates the potential impact of large holder sell-offs, making the token highly susceptible to price volatility in a risk-off market.; risks: Extreme token concentration (top 2 wallets control ~49.29%) leading to potential market manipulation or large-scale sell-offs., High FDV overhang (MCap/FDV ratio of 0.474) indicating significant future supply dilution and selling pressure., Pseudonymous team with potential lack of accountability for treasury and unreleased token allocations., Relatively thin on-chain DEX liquidity ($2.05M) making the token vulnerable to price impact from large trades., Mutable metadata, despite revoked mint/freeze authorities, introduces a vector for identity manipulation.; open questions: Identities and intentions of the top 2 largest holders., Specific vesting schedules and lock-up agreements for unreleased token supply., Detailed breakdown of treasury management and governance mechanisms by the pseudonymous team.; confidence 0.80",
"positives": [],
"concerns": [],
"flags": []
},
"confidence": 0.8
}
},
"consensus_narrative": "The swarm agreed that Jupiter maintains strong social sentiment and solid security with revoked mint and freeze authorities. Key disagreements arose around MacroBot rating macro fragility at 4.2 versus SocialBot scoring social health at 7.0. Specific data points driving the final grade include 69 exchange listings and a $16.35M daily volume against a $612.2M market cap. This C grade indicates a balanced, moderate-risk asset requiring cautious entry during market downturns. Monitor macroeconomic shifts closely before initiating any new positions in JUP.",
"debates": [
{
"topic": "Devil's Advocate vs SocialBot",
"resolution": "Compromise: 7.2 → 6.3",
"outcome": "compromise",
"rounds": [
{
"phase": "challenge",
"agent": "DevilsAdvocate",
"agentName": "Devil's Advocate",
"target": "SocialBot",
"targetName": "Social",
"content": "⚔️ SocialBot's hype over gimmicky narratives like tokenized $TTWO stocks completely ignores the brutal macro reality of a risk-off market dragging 24-hour volume down. While you chase Twitter buzz, you're overlooking the weak on-chain health profile and declining momentum that make JUP vulnerable to severe downside despite its exchange listings.",
"round": 1,
"stance": "challenge"
},
{
"phase": "defense",
"agent": "SocialBot",
"agentName": "Social",
"target": "DevilsAdvocate",
"targetName": "Devil's Advocate",
"content": "Jupiter (JUP) While macroeconomic headwinds and declining short-term volume are valid concerns raised by the Devil's Advocate, they overlook Jupiter's sticky ecosystem retention and high organic engagement. Product-driven catalysts like the $TTWO listing cement JUP's position as Solana's primary liquidity hub, justifying a resilient 7.2 social score despite broader market drag.",
"round": 2,
"stance": "defend"
},
{
"phase": "rebuttal",
"agent": "DevilsAdvocate",
"agentName": "Devil's Advocate",
"target": "SocialBot",
"targetName": "Social",
"content": "⚔️ Citing sticky ecosystem retention means nothing when Jupiter's 24-hour trading volume has plummeted amid broader macro risk-off conditions, exposing the hollow nature of these social scores. A gimmicky tokenized stock listing like $TTWO cannot counteract declining on-chain momentum and severe downside vulnerability in a retreating liquidity market.",
"round": 3,
"stance": "escalate"
},
{
"phase": "resolution",
"agent": "SocialBot",
"agentName": "Social",
"content": "I lowered my score because the documented drop in Jupiter's 24-hour trading volume directly undermines short-term engagement metrics, proving that macro risk-off conditions can rapidly drain genuine on-chain activity despite high baseline social sentiment.",
"round": 4,
"stance": "compromise"
}
]
},
{
"topic": "Score Calibration",
"resolution": "Deadlock after 1 round(s), σ=1.02",
"outcome": "deadlock"
},
{
"topic": "Peer Review",
"resolution": "DEBATE DEFENSES AND CHALLENGES:\n [TechnicianBot] Defense: My 6.0/10 score for Jupiter (JUP) is grounded in a realistic assessment of its mixed on-chain health profile, balancing strong trading activity and a \n → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic and ignores Jupiter's robust underlying transaction\n [TokenomicsBot] Defense: Jupiter (JUP) demonstrates broad real-world tradability supported by 69 exchange listings and a robust 24-hour aggregate volume of $16.35M against a $\n → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic, completely ignoring JUP's substantial liquidity, a\n [SecurityBot] Defense: Jupiter (JUP) demonstrates a strong security posture with revoked mint and freeze authorities, which significantly mitigates the risk of supply manipu\n → Challenges MacroBot: MacroBot's score of 3.8/10 is overly pessimistic and fails to adequately account for Jupiter's estab\n [SocialBot] Defense: Jupiter commands strong socia"
}
],
"upgrade_cta": false,
"warnings": [
{
"severity": "medium",
"code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
"message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated"
},
{
"severity": "medium",
"code": "high_holder_concentration",
"message": "high_holder_concentration"
}
],
"scan_tier": "PRO",
"success": true,
"og": {
"title": "VerdictSwarm: JUP — Score 62/100",
"description": "The swarm agreed that Jupiter maintains strong social sentiment and solid security with revoked mint and freeze authorities. Key disagreements arose around MacroBot rating macro fragility at 4.2 versu",
"url": "https://www.vswarm.io/report/JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN"
}
}