UNSETTLED

Public outcome ledger

Counts include misses. The report never hides an outcome because it contradicted the original call.

RAW REPORT PAYLOAD

{
  "address": "0x797f214a2cd64a4963a91fa21c8c55ec3eba4714",
  "chain": "base",
  "depth": "full",
  "tier": "FREE",
  "score": 38.6,
  "grade": "F",
  "risk_level": "CRITICAL",
  "flags": [
    "high_holder_concentration"
  ],
  "free_tier_result": {
    "verdict": "UNHEALTHY",
    "reason": "Despite revoked mint/freeze authorities and social presence, the extremely high top 10 holder concentration on a new token with low market cap and liquidity indicates significant risk of a developer or early investor dump.",
    "label": "AI Verdict",
    "checks": {
      "contract_verified": true,
      "token_age_days": 25,
      "liquidity_usd": 132017.88,
      "holder_count": 2891,
      "has_liquidity_pool": true,
      "chain": "base"
    },
    "risk_level": "high",
    "key_findings": [
      "Token is 25 days old with a market cap of $443K and $132K in liquidity, which is a reasonable liquidity ratio for its size.",
      "Mint and Freeze authorities are revoked, which is a positive security indicator.",
      "Top 10 holders control 76.8% of the supply, with 0% attributed to protocol-controlled wallets, meaning this concentration is in individual hands.",
      "The high concentration (76.8%) in individual wallets for a token only 25 days old, with no clear protocol utility for such concentration, presents a significant risk of price manipulation or a dump.",
      "Social links (website, twitter, discord) exist, suggesting an attempt at a legitimate project, but this does not mitigate the holder concentration risk."
    ],
    "confidence": 0.9
  },
  "goplus": {
    "source": "goplus",
    "api_available": true,
    "goplus_available": true,
    "goplus_status_message": null,
    "is_mintable": false,
    "is_honeypot": false,
    "holder_count": 2891,
    "lp_holder_count": 3,
    "top_10_holder_rate": 0.7684000000000001,
    "top10_holders_pct": 76.84,
    "is_open_source": true,
    "is_proxy": false,
    "lp_burned_or_locked": null,
    "security_findings": [
      {
        "source": "goplus",
        "code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
        "severity": "medium",
        "message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated",
        "value": 76.84
      }
    ]
  },
  "security_findings": [
    {
      "source": "goplus",
      "code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated",
      "value": 76.84
    }
  ],
  "scanned_at": "2026-04-13T20:36:49.394508Z",
  "cached": false,
  "cached_at": null,
  "liquidity_exposure_cap_usd": 990.13,
  "summary": "SIBYL by Virtuals (SIBYL) is a base token with $443K market cap, 25 days old.  Key concerns: security risks, tokenomics concerns. Overall verdict: F — critical risk — not recommended.",
  "token": {
    "vol_liq_ratio": 0.23,
    "name": "SIBYL by Virtuals",
    "symbol": "SIBYL",
    "chain": "base",
    "price_usd": 0.0009094,
    "mcap": 443380,
    "market_cap": 443380,
    "volume_24h": 29976.03,
    "liquidity_usd": 132017.88,
    "contract_age_days": 25,
    "contract_verified": true,
    "holder_count": 2891,
    "top10_holders_pct": 76.84,
    "holders_by_acquisition": null,
    "holder_change_24h": null,
    "holder_change_7d": null,
    "holder_change_30d": null,
    "holder_supply_top10_pct": null,
    "holder_supply_top25_pct": null,
    "holder_supply_top50_pct": null,
    "holder_supply_top100_pct": null,
    "exchange_wallet_pct": null,
    "net_exchange_flow_24h_usd": null,
    "top_holders": null,
    "top10_whale_pct": null,
    "top10_protocol_pct": null,
    "mint_authority": null,
    "freeze_authority": null,
    "mutable_metadata": null,
    "lp_burned_or_locked": "unlocked",
    "lp_locked_pct": 0,
    "lp_burned_pct": 0,
    "lp_unlocked_pct": 100,
    "lp_lock_expiry": null,
    "lp_locker_name": null,
    "social_links": {
      "website": "https://sibylcap.com",
      "twitter": "https://x.com/sibylcap",
      "discord": "https://discord.gg/vhpTJwt9PX"
    },
    "creator_balance_pct": null,
    "authority_governance": null,
    "goplus_trusted": true,
    "goplus_available": true,
    "goplus_status_message": null,
    "bundle_detected": false,
    "is_honeypot": false
  },
  "bots": {
    "TechnicianBot": {
      "score": 4,
      "sentiment": "neutral",
      "category": "Technical",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "AI on-chain (GPT-4o Mini); The SIBYL token shows a mixed on-chain picture with a relatively high transaction count but significant holder concentration. While the contract is verified and there is some liquidity, the top 10 holders control a large portion of the supply, indicating potential fragility in distribution. Overall, the token's young age and current market conditions contribute to an uncertain outlook.",
        "positives": [
          "High transaction count in the last 24 hours (1,847 transactions)",
          "Verified contract on-chain, indicating transparency",
          "Total holder count of 2,891, suggesting some level of interest"
        ],
        "concerns": [
          "Top 10 holders control 76.84% of the token supply, indicating high concentration risk",
          "Current market cap of $443,380.00 is relatively low, which may affect stability",
          "24-hour trading volume of $29,976.03 is modest, suggesting limited market engagement",
          "confidence 0.50"
        ],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    "DevilsAdvocate": {
      "score": 3,
      "sentiment": "bearish",
      "category": "Contrarian",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "AI contrarian (Gemini 2.5 Flash) [NEUTRAL contrarian]; The SIBYL token, despite its potential utility, is fundamentally insecure due to 0% LP lock and extreme holder concentration. These factors, combined with an unknown mint authority status, create an unacceptably high risk of rug pull or severe price manipulation. The current market regime further amplifies these liquidity and downside risks, making any investment highly speculative.; risks: 0% Liquidity Pool locked, enabling immediate rug pull by LP providers., Extreme holder concentration (76.84% in top 10) allows for significant price manipulation or sell-off., Unknown mint authority status, posing a risk of arbitrary supply inflation., High risk of project abandonment or slow rug due to lack of security commitments., Vulnerable to market downturns due to fragile liquidity and concentrated ownership.; open questions: Status of mint authority (renounced or not)., Identity and intentions of the top 10 holders., Specifics of the 'AI-powered NFT and gaming platform' and its development roadmap.; confidence 0.95",
        "positives": [],
        "concerns": [],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.95
    },
    "MacroBot": {
      "score": 3.8,
      "sentiment": "bearish",
      "category": "Macro",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "AI macro (Grok); SIBYL, a young utility token for an AI-powered NFT/gaming platform on Base, faces heightened fragility in the extreme fear risk-off regime due to its microcap size, high holder concentration, and limited liquidity. While volume-to-mcap ratio is healthy for its age, the lack of catalysts, sector peers data, and social momentum leaves it exposed to indiscriminate selling without offsetting resilience. Gaming/AI narratives typically amplify downside beta to ETH/Base in fear-driven drawdowns.; drivers: Healthy 0.1x volume/mcap ratio indicates organic trading for a 25-day-old token, 2891 holders show early adoption on efficient Base chain, AI/gaming utility ties into persistent narratives with potential rotation upside if sentiment flips; risks: Top 10 holders control 76.84% supply, vulnerable to whale dumps in risk-off, Low liquidity ($132k) and microcap ($443k) amplify slippage in volatility, Extreme Fear (16/100) regime punishes speculative gaming/AI sectors hardest; confidence 0.45",
        "positives": [],
        "concerns": [],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.45
    },
    "TokenomicsBot": {
      "score": 3,
      "sentiment": "bearish",
      "category": "Tokenomics",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "AI tokenomics (Gemini 2.5 Flash); The token exhibits extremely high ownership concentration and a significant risk from 100% unlocked liquidity, making it structurally fragile. While the liquidity-to-market cap ratio of 29.8% is strong, the top 10 holders controlling 76.84% of the supply and the unlocked LP create a high-risk environment for retail holders. The large gap between market cap and FDV (MCap/FDV ratio of 0.49) also points to substantial future dilution pressure.; unlock risk 100/100; + The liquidity-to-market cap ratio is a healthy 29.8%, providing decent depth for trading relative to its current valuation., The contract is verified, which is a basic but essential security and transparency measure., Achieving a holder count of nearly 2900 in under a month shows some initial community interest and adoption.; risks: 100% of liquidity is unlocked, creating a severe rug pull risk where liquidity providers can withdraw their funds at any time., Extreme ownership concentration (76.84% in top 10 wallets) gives a small group disproportionate control over the market., The MCap/FDV ratio of 0.49 indicates that over half the total supply is not yet in circulation, posing a significant future dilution risk., The token is only available on a single DEX, limiting liquidity access and making it vulnerable to single-point-of-failure issues.; confidence 0.70",
        "positives": [],
        "concerns": [],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.7
    },
    "SecurityBot": {
      "score": 3.5,
      "sentiment": "bearish",
      "category": "Safety",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "AI security (Claude Sonnet 4.5); SIBYL is a 25-day-old utility token on Base with significant structural vulnerabilities. The contract is upgradeable (OpenZeppelin UUPS pattern visible in source), retains active owner privileges, and has 100% unlocked liquidity ($132k) with no LP lock or burn. Top 10 holders control 76.84% of supply, creating severe concentration risk. The contract is verified, but the upgradeable proxy pattern means the implementation can be replaced at any time by the owner. With only $443k market cap and minimal liquidity in a RISK_OFF regime (Fear & Greed: 16), the token faces compounding risks: owner can upgrade to malicious logic, liquidity can be pulled instantly, and concentrated holders can dump. No audit, no third-party security validation, and the Virtuals Protocol infrastructure wallets (excluded from analysis per prompt) add operational complexity. For a young token, missing social/exchange data is expected, but the on-chain control structure is exploitable right now.; CRITICAL: Upgradeable contract with unrestricted owner: Owner can deploy new implementation with transfer blocks, fee extraction, or supply manipulation, Zero LP lock/burn: Liquidity provider can exit at will, leaving holders with worthless tokens; risks: Upgradeable proxy with active owner control: Implementation can be replaced with arbitrary malicious logic at any time without holder consent, 100% unlocked liquidity ($132k): Entire LP can be withdrawn instantly, enabling immediate rug-pull with no time-lock protection, Extreme holder concentration (76.84% in top 10): Small group can coordinate to dump, and distribution is highly centralized for a 2,891-holder token, No audit or third-party security validation: Upgradeable contracts require rigorous review; none is present, leaving upgrade attack surface unvetted; confidence 0.75",
        "positives": [],
        "concerns": [],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.75
    },
    "SocialBot": {
      "score": 5,
      "sentiment": "neutral",
      "category": "Social",
      "reasoning": {
        "summary": "X/Twitter sentiment (Grok); sub-scores: OE=6.0, IQ=6.0, CG=5.0, BSD=9.0; Young AI agent token with active official X account posting technical updates on benchmarks, upgrades, and services. Positive mentions from traders highlighting early momentum and real utility in Virtuals ecosystem. Small whale buys noted. Organic but limited engagement fitting for 25-day old project.; narratives: AI agents on Base/Virtuals Protocol, Autonomous on-chain advisor with strong memory benchmarks (#5 on LongMemEval), Framework licensing and SaaS for web3 builders; fake/coordination risk: 1/100; confidence 0.75",
        "positives": [],
        "concerns": [],
        "flags": []
      },
      "confidence": 0.75
    }
  },
  "consensus_narrative": "The swarm largely agreed SIBYL presents extreme risk due to severe structural vulnerabilities. While SocialBot noted active community engagement and utility, SecurityBot and TokenomicsBot highlighted critical issues like 0% LP lock, 76.84% supply controlled by top 10 holders, and an upgradeable contract with active owner privileges. This F grade signifies a high potential for rug pull or manipulation, despite its young age and transaction volume. MacroBot further emphasized its fragility in a risk-off market. Exercise extreme caution; the identified structural risks far outweigh any social momentum.",
  "debates": [
    {
      "topic": "Social vs Safety",
      "resolution": "This conflict highlights a critical divergence between perceived market momentum and fundamental security risks. While SocialBot identifies strong community interest and utility, SecurityBot reveals severe technical vulnerabilities like an upgradeable contract, active owner privileges, and unlocked liquidity, exposing investors to potential rug pulls or malicious changes despite positive social sentiment.",
      "outcome": "noted",
      "rounds": [
        {
          "phase": "challenge",
          "agent": "SecurityBot",
          "agentName": "Security",
          "target": "SocialBot",
          "targetName": "Social",
          "content": "Cross-category conflict: Safety scored 3.5/10 while Social scored 6.0/10. This 2.5-point gap suggests the token's strengths in Social may not translate to Safety reliability.",
          "round": 1,
          "stance": "challenge"
        },
        {
          "phase": "resolution",
          "agent": "SecurityBot",
          "agentName": "Security",
          "content": "This conflict highlights a critical divergence between perceived market momentum and fundamental security risks. While SocialBot identifies strong community interest and utility, SecurityBot reveals severe technical vulnerabilities like an upgradeable contract, active owner privileges, and unlocked liquidity, exposing investors to potential rug pulls or malicious changes despite positive social sentiment.",
          "round": 2,
          "stance": "noted"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "topic": "Devil's Advocate vs SocialBot",
      "resolution": "Split verdict: SocialBot maintains 6.0, Devil's Advocate maintains 3.0. Both positions presented.",
      "outcome": "split",
      "rounds": [
        {
          "phase": "challenge",
          "agent": "DevilsAdvocate",
          "agentName": "Devil's Advocate",
          "target": "SocialBot",
          "targetName": "Social",
          "content": "⚔️ SocialBot's optimism is naive; 'positive mentions from traders' and 'small whale buys' are easily manipulated signals, especially when 76.84% of supply is controlled by the top 10 holders and LP is 0% locked. 'Limited engagement' is not a positive, and narratives alone cannot overcome the extreme rug pull risk and structural fragility highlighted by other bots.",
          "round": 1,
          "stance": "challenge"
        },
        {
          "phase": "defense",
          "agent": "SocialBot",
          "agentName": "Social",
          "target": "DevilsAdvocate",
          "targetName": "Devil's Advocate",
          "content": "While acknowledging the valid concerns regarding concentrated holdings and LP lock, my 6.0 score focuses on the *social* health: active official X with technical updates, organic trader mentions, and low social manipulation risk (1/100). The 'limited engagement' is contextualized for a 25-day-old project, showing genuine early interest rather than artificial hype, which is a positive for nascent social traction despite structural risks.",
          "round": 2,
          "stance": "defend"
        },
        {
          "phase": "rebuttal",
          "agent": "DevilsAdvocate",
          "agentName": "Devil's Advocate",
          "target": "SocialBot",
          "targetName": "Social",
          "content": "⚔️ Social's focus on 'active X updates' and 'organic trader mentions' is irrelevant when 76.84% of the supply is concentrated and 0% of LP is locked, creating an undeniable rug pull vector regardless of social sentiment. 'Limited engagement' for a 25-day-old project, while potentially organic, does not mitigate the extreme structural fragility and centralized control that fundamentally undermines any nascent 'social health.'",
          "round": 3,
          "stance": "escalate"
        },
        {
          "phase": "resolution",
          "agent": "SocialBot",
          "agentName": "Social",
          "content": "While acknowledging the critical risks of high supply concentration and zero LP lock, my 6.0 score reflects the positive social momentum from active X updates and organic trader mentions, suggesting genuine community interest that mitigates, but does not eliminate, the rug pull risk. The project's youth (25 days) also frames 'limited engagement' as potentially organic growth, justifying a mid-range score despite financial vulnerabilities.",
          "round": 4,
          "stance": "defend"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "topic": "Score Calibration",
      "resolution": "Consensus after 1 round(s), σ=0.66",
      "outcome": "consensus"
    },
    {
      "topic": "Peer Review",
      "resolution": "DEBATE DEFENSES AND CHALLENGES:\n  [TechnicianBot] Defense: My score of 5.0/10 balances the token's active on-chain presence, evidenced by a high transaction count, with significant concerns regarding its conce\n  [MacroBot] Defense: SIBYL's microcap status, high holder concentration, and limited liquidity on Base make it extremely vulnerable in a risk-off environment, amplifying i\n    → Challenges SocialBot: SocialBot's score is too high because strong social momentum, while positive, cannot fully insulate \n  [SecurityBot] Defense: SIBYL presents significant security risks due to its upgradeable contract with active owner privileges, allowing for potential malicious changes. The \n    → Challenges SocialBot: SocialBot's score is too high because the severe technical vulnerabilities, such as an upgradeable c\n  [SocialBot] Defense: SIBYL exhibits strong social signals for a young project, with an active official X account consistently posting technical updates and achieving posit\n    → Cha"
    }
  ],
  "upgrade_cta": false,
  "warnings": [
    {
      "severity": "medium",
      "code": "TOP10_CONCENTRATION",
      "message": "Top 10 holders concentration is elevated"
    },
    {
      "severity": "medium",
      "code": "high_holder_concentration",
      "message": "high_holder_concentration"
    }
  ],
  "scan_tier": "PRO_PLUS",
  "success": true,
  "og": {
    "title": "VerdictSwarm: SIBYL — Score 39/100",
    "description": "The swarm largely agreed SIBYL presents extreme risk due to severe structural vulnerabilities. While SocialBot noted active community engagement and utility, SecurityBot and TokenomicsBot highlighted ",
    "url": "https://www.vswarm.io/report/0x797f214a2cd64a4963a91fa21c8c55ec3eba4714"
  }
}